Weather forecasts can be imprecise. A surprising number are wrong, and even short-term forecasts often miss the mark. Let’s hope this happens with the latest predictions because, if not, all of us will soon be living through “interesting” times.
These days, important weather systems have names, and the one we’re talking about is called “El Niño,” which is Spanish for “the little boy.” This is a naturally occurring phenomenon and, according to AI Overview, it develops every two to seven years, warms surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean, and, in the process, “significantly disrupts global weather and marine conditions.”
So, while El Niños develop often enough, the one meteorologists are forecasting now shows signs of developing into a Super El Niño, which could tie or even break the record. The last time this occurred was back in 1877–1878. Experts who have studied that period say it was responsible for terrible droughts and famines around the world. But those were not the worst consequences. The Washington Post said that Super El Niño led to the deaths of more than 50 million people.
Bear in mind that happened approximately 150 years ago, at a time when the population of the world was just a fraction of what it currently is. It’s estimated those deaths were three to four percent of the global population at that time; the equivalent of that in today’s numbers would be 250 million people.
“Unusual Urgency”
“The last time the Pacific warmed this aggressively was during 1877 and 1878, when the resulting droughts and harvest failures across India, China, Brazil, and elsewhere contributed to famines that killed tens of millions of people,” says the “End of the American Dream” website. “That history, combined with an ocean already running hotter than any 19th-century baseline, has forecasters treating the current signal with unusual urgency.”
What would happen if chas v’shalomh a comparably powerful El Niño struck now? Would the consequences be as catastrophic as they were so many years ago? Or would all that has been learned since then—modern farming techniques and other advances—offset that, at least to an extent?
There are still too many variables to answer that for certain, but a closer look at the past may provide important lessons. According to experts cited by the Washington Post, the Super El Niño of 1877–78 “was arguably the worst environmental disaster to ever befall humanity.” But it did not happen overnight. “In the years that followed, a combination of strong climate forces in the Indian and Atlantic oceans formed alongside the record-breaking El Niño, amplifying and prolonging the drought.”
No Two Exactly Alike
So, even though no one can predict exactly how the weather will unfold in the coming months, a very significant meteorological event is almost certainly on the way. Literally every forecasting agency—government, commercial, and private—in every country around the world, including those in the U.S., Japan, Europe, and Australia, now predicts that an El Niño will develop and be comparable to, or may even exceed, the most powerful ones in history, including the Super El Niño of 1877–78.
According to a report on MSN in mid-May, “There is now an 82% chance that an El Niño is likely to emerge over the next few months—that’s up from the 61% chance estimated a month ago. And there’s now a 96% chance that as a result of this climate pattern, wheat production will likely drop in 2027 here in the United States.”
And that’s really bad news, because it is being projected that in 2026 U.S. farmers will grow the fewest acres of wheat since records began in 1919. “This can be traced to warmer ocean waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific that will be in force this winter,” the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said.
At least some meteorologists are now warning this could create weather conditions that would drive up temperatures around the world in the coming months and set the stage for 2027 becoming the hottest year on record. For example, they think there could be a repeat of the record heat in Britain seen in 2022, when temperatures got as high as 40°C (104°F). Moreover, it’s likely that it would also result in an increase in the price of other crops and commodities such as coffee and sugar.
And the effects would not be limited to Britain; almost every area of the world will be affected in some way: some will experience drought, while others will have to contend with unusually heavy rainfall.
The Weather Channel is forecasting that a Super El Niño in 2026 “will bring significant weather extremes to the U.S., likely causing a hotter, stormy summer and a warmer, wetter winter across the southern tier. Key impacts include intensified hurricane activity in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic hurricanes, increased flash flooding risk in the Plains, and warmer temperatures in the northern U.S.”
Wheat, Too
The possibility that farmers will produce significantly less wheat and other crops this year and next is the last thing consumers and food companies want to hear; nevertheless, that may become a reality, and there are several reasons why.
Despite significant rain recently in some areas out West, others are still experiencing unusually dry conditions. And that’s not all. Many farmers are not able to get as much fertilizer as they need. Others were forced to pay significantly higher prices for it, and those high costs undoubtedly will be passed on to consumers. This year there has been especially little snow, which means much less runoff than usual.
Many experts believe the weather is cyclical, shifting from drought to plentiful rainfall, and from intense heat to record cold. Whether or not that’s correct is something meteorologists certainly will continue to study. Meanwhile, ordinary people should also keep an eye on the sky. Gold and silver are precious, and so is oil, but none of these comes close to food. And food doesn’t come close to water, because almost no one can survive for more than a few days without it. That’s why smart people must be careful with every drop, and include this in our prayers.
Sources: AI Overview; eastidahonews.com; msn.com; washingtonpost.com; theendoftheamericandream.com; weather.com; weather.gov
Gerald Harris is a financial and feature writer. Gerald can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
