Not too long ago, lots of people were convinced the world was becoming overpopulated. This idea was promoted in TV shows, movies, and books, and discussed at parties and other social events. But conversations these days are headed in a totally different direction: The world is becoming depopulated. Which view is correct? This is not just an academic question, because the answer will shape foreign policy, social programs, and both national and local budgets. Are you ready for the dramatic changes coming our way?
There’s no question that population growth has slowed dramatically in the US, and even more so in many European and Asian countries, where birth rates have declined to record and near record lows. They are below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman, and in a growing number of countries way below that. If this trend continues, national budgets will be strained, elections impacted, and much about our lifestyles that is near and dear to us will be changed forever.
According to Population Connection, “Fewer births lead to reduced population growth and an increase in the average age of a population. Politicians and economists fret about this as it can mean a smaller future pool of consumers and taxpayers, slower economic growth and more strain on social services such as pensions and healthcare.”
The concerns about declining birth rates go well beyond this. They also can affect domestic and foreign policies. defense objectives, culture, the food chain, manufacturing, taxes, and in the longer term, the ability of nations to remain viable.
Our Changing World
There are numerous examples of this already happening. Several weeks ago, market commentator John Williams toured Japan to get a closer look at their latest factories and the new gadgets they were making. He was impressed by what he saw, but was also shocked by what he did not see: There were hardly any children on the streets in any of the cities he visited.
Tourists in Paris, London, and other major cities are often confronted by a different scenario: Huge numbers of residents live lifestyles and cultures drastically different and even hostile to those of their natives. Countries, however, are welcoming millions to pick up the slack resulting from fewer births.
The countries with the lowest birth rates in 2022 were Malta, just 1.08 per woman – just half the replacement rate; Spain with 1.16, and Italy at 1.24. The numbers were higher in other major countries, but only modestly so. For example, Sweden, Austria, Germany, and Switzerland all had birth rates ranging between 1.39 and 1.56.
The birth rate in South Korea is so low that its government describes the situation as a “national emergency” and will create a ministry to address the crisis. Japan’s birth rate, one of the lowest in the world, continues to drop. In 2022, there were fewer than 800,000 births. And in China it’s so low that the population dropped by two million, allowing India to move into first place in total population. However, this may change because the birth rate in India, too, is dropping, and now is below replacement rate.
Mistaken Impressions
Falling birth rates may seem good because more wealth and resources will be distributed among fewer people. However, it’s not. The Chicago Council on Global Affairs called it “very bad,” because “it involves aging societies, declining populations, fewer young people available to pay the taxes…sustain a society, and sustain pensions, healthcare and other necessities.”
The end of the American dream website adds to that: The fewer young people will not be able to provide adequate care to the more numerous and growing aging population. Nor is it certain they will gain the expertise retirees had. An economist interviewed by The Wall Street Journal warned that if the population collapses, “a demographic winter” will follow.
Are we witnessing depopulation play out in real time? Possibly. A study funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation found that “by the year 2050, 155 of 204 countries are on course to have birth rates lower than required to sustain the population level.” And over the longer term, researchers believe there will be even sharper declines, predicting that the fertility rate will drop to 1.83 by 2050 and to just 1.59 by 2100.
Elon Musk, head of Tesla and Space X, often comments about political and social issues, and the shrinking population is one of them. Musk told the Wall Street Journal’s annual CEO Council that “One of the biggest risks to civilization is the rapidly declining birthrate. We need to increase our fertility rates to counter the aging populations – at the very least we need to maintain our numbers.”
Why Now?
Populations have been growing for millennia. Why are they falling now? One answer is that the cost of supporting a family has skyrocketed. According to one study, a family of four needs an annual income of nearly $178,000 to live comfortably – even more for those living a frum lifestyle.
And according to the website First Post there are many more reasons. Infertility is increasing in both men and women. At the same time, abortions are easily available in many countries. Moreover, the costs of healthcare, housing, child care, and household labor all are very expensive and show no indication of becoming lower any time soon. Nor is there any indication that the government will step up and assume any of these expenses.
Some governments have become aware of the problem and have been offering couples tax incentives to have children and are supporting parental leave. These, however, have hardly made a dent in this situation. “Governments are not listening to their people, especially their women,” according to First Post. Changing standards of morality and the changing role women play in society are other factors.
Of course, it’s possible that societies will move back to the traditional dynamic of family life. But until then, expect to see more changes coming: Increased reliance on automation replacing manual labor, possible shortages of supplies as factories try to cope with smaller workforces and higher costs of labor, slowed economic growth, and more pressure on budgets.
To my knowledge, the only time the global population tumbled was during the Black Death as a result of bubonic plague in the mid-1300s. Today, we’re seeing hints of the same in more and more countries. The “new normal” seems to be anything but normal.
Sources: businessinsider.com; dw.com; endoftheamericandream.com; firstpost.com; populationconnection.org; thelocal.com; wsj.com; zerohedge.com. YouTube: The Rubin Report
Gerald Harris is a financial and feature writer. Gerald can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
