By the time this column is published, we should know who the next mayor of New York will be. As I write, I sit and wait with trepidation about what the final results will be. The polls are all over the lot. Although all of them have Mamdani in the lead, some have him ahead by 5 percentage points and others by 25. The same applies to Sliwa’s strength: Some have him within a couple of percentage points of Cuomo, and others have him in low double digits. It just shows the uselessness of the polls.
My prediction is that if Sliwa receives over 10% of the vote, Mamdani wins. If not, Cuomo wins. If Mamdani receives less than 50% of the vote, many will blame Sliwa for not dropping out. It is easy to blame Sliwa because he is the candidate. However, nobody forced anyone to vote for him. Everyone who voted for Sliwa did so of their own free will—many with the knowledge that it would help Mamdani win, since Sliwa does not have a chance to win.
The fact that we voted for the elected officials with our own free will in a contested election is something that tends to get lost. We are unhappy with our elected officials, but we forget who elected them in the first place. The quality—or lack thereof—is a reflection of the country.
Every day that Trump breaks traditional norms of how a president should act, it shocks some of his voters. They should not be surprised. As Trump repeatedly reminds us, he is doing what he said he would. Trump voters may have wanted to focus only on the belief that he would be good for the economy and decided to ignore the rest. Trump has not.
It is the same with Mamdani. I do not think that the majority of his voters are supporting him because of his views on Israel; they could not care less. They are worried about the high cost of living in New York. However, if he wins, those Jews who focused only on Mamdani’s economic “plan” should not be surprised if he acts on his various threats concerning Prime Minister Netanyahu and Israel.
Mamdani is a left-wing populist, while Trump is a right-wing populist. Many Bernie Sanders supporters voted for Trump because they liked his populist views. Mamdani, just like Trump, understood what voters were worried about and wanted to hear. They are both good at making themselves out to be victims, like some of their supporters, and are good at blaming others for the current situation. Mamdani, just like Trump in 2015–2016, came out of nowhere to defeat well-known establishment candidates. The fact that they are inexperienced and not part of the traditional political establishment is a plus.
The Republican Party has been taken over by Trump and his MAGA populists. Will the Democratic Party follow the populist route? A few years ago, when a bunch of progressives won, it was feared that the progressives would take over the party. Fortunately, that has not happened. The Democratic House of Representatives minority leader, Hakeem Jeffries, says that Mamdani’s approach will not be the party’s approach. I hope he is right.
Whether or not Mamdani wins, he has shown that progressive populism is a possible direction. We do not need to have the Democratic Party ruined by progressive populists, just as the Republican Party has been by Republican Trump MAGA populists.
For Jews, this mayoral election is a wake-up call. Even if most people do not care about Israel and antisemitism, in the past Mamdani’s views would have been a disqualifier. The fact that most people do not care says something.
The bottom line is our elected officials are our representatives, and who they are and how they act says a lot about us. Right now, it is not a pretty picture.
