On January 6, 2025, the certification of the election went off without a hitch, as opposed to what happened four years earlier. The common feeling is that what happened on January 6, 2021, was a one-off; it happened once and will never happen again. Their proof is that four years later, the system went back to normal.
I think that is an erroneous view of the situation. What has happened since the attack on the Capitol on January 6 makes it likely that it will happen again.
Whether or not you believe that Trump was criminally liable for what occurred, it is undisputed that he did nothing for three hours while the rioters went into the Capitol. Trump never took any responsibility for what he said or did but instead kept on repeating the lies that the election was stolen. He has also referred to those who were convicted of criminal conduct as hostages or patriots and has promised to pardon some or all of them.
Trump paid no price for his conduct, either criminally or politically. The American people saw with their own eyes what happened. They saw the testimony at the January 6 commission hearing and its report. The reaction was, we don’t care. That is why Trump was reelected as president, which few people on January 7, 2021, could have believed.
In contrast, those who had the courage to do the right thing and follow the rule of law are ostracized and out of power. Two examples are former vice president Mike Pence, who refused to go along with the scheme not to certify the election, and former member of the House of Representatives Liz Cheney, who was the minority leader of the January 6 Committee. Trump and some fellow Republican elected officials have threatened to go after Cheney and others on the committee through investigations and bringing criminal charges as revenge.
Also, the Supreme Court gave the president immunity, which increased the likelihood that a president would try to stay in power. The president could argue that they have immunity for their actions. Having immunity makes it more desirable to become president. You can engage in criminal conduct while president and claim immunity.
Additionally, it is now easier to use the presidency as a cash grab for you and your family. It is not a coincidence that there are more Trump family business activities leading up to this presidency as opposed to the last. There are ventures such as crypto through World Liberty Financial and DJT and them selling various items such as expensive watches. This is in addition to the Trump properties such a Mar-a-Lago. This will continue during the presidency. The public does not care, and the Supreme Court has given the president cover to do it.
The policy has been that the Department of Justice will not prosecute a sitting president. That benefit was been extended to pending state cases. In the New York County criminal proceeding, Judge Marchan was clear that but for Trump being reelected as president, he would have been subject to some punishment such as probation and possibly jail time. The federal cases were stopped whether at the trial or appellate level against Trump because it was clear that Trump, when he becomes president, would shut them down. Thus, becoming president or remaining president has become a keep out of jail card.
A president or a president wannabe cannot do it alone. They need followers. After January 6, 2021, the DOJ tried to send a message that such conduct would not be tolerated and successfully prosecuted many of those involved. Trump has promised to pardon them. The message is: Either way you win. If your guy takes power, then you will be rewarded. If he loses, there is a good chance that he will be back in four years and will take care of you.
There are already rumblings about Trump being able to run again, arguing that the two-term exclusion under the constitution is consecutive. It does not matter to his followers whether it is true or not. They will support him if he attempts to make that argument.
All of this has made it more likely that a president will try to illegally stay in power through force and other means. To think that January 6 was an aberration is a mistake. Unless the American people and Supreme Court’s attitude changes, it is just a matter of time until another attempt will be made. The one doing it will have learned from Trump’s mistakes back in January 2021 and will have a better chance of success. If it happens, we have no one else to blame but ourselves.
Warren S. Hecht is a local attorney. He can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.