Many questions about the war between Russia and Ukraine need to be answered. Following are just a few of them: Will the fighting stop or further escalate? Why are the European nations feverishly preparing for war at their borders? And why would these nations, now at peace, even consider getting involved in a conflict that does not affect them directly? These are strange questions to be asking about a war that, in the view of some analysts, could have been avoided.
One person who has ready answers for these questions is Martin Armstrong. If you’ve never heard of him, Armstrong has a very interesting background. He became a self-made millionaire before age 20, is a widely followed economic and political forecaster, and earned fame and fortune by accurately forecasting numerous market and political developments. Although he’s been called the best financial market commentator in the world, others consider him controversial because he’s also a convicted felon.
Early in his career, Armstrong developed what he called an Economic Confidence Model. According to this theory, there is some form of economic panic approximately every 8.6 years or 3,141 days. If the number 3,141 looks vaguely familiar, that’s because it’s exactly 1,000 times the value of the Greek letter pi, which is used in famous geometric formulas.
In any case, in each 8.6-year cycle there is an economic crisis followed by an improving economy; subsequently, this is followed by another crisis 8.6 years later. This theory is much more complicated than it looks, as each cycle is also a part of both longer “waves” and shorter quarter-cycle waves, among other factors.
Not all of Armstrong’s predictions are correct. His batting average, however, was high enough for Time to have written that “(his) model made several eerily on-the-mark calls.” Possibly the best known of those was his 1987 prediction that the market would crash—and the exact day it would happen—made weeks before the event.
Major Escalation
Armstrong has recently been speaking with USA Watchdog, a news website that features stories about politics, economics, healthcare, and more. He told them that despite recent peace talks, “The war in Ukraine is about to expand, and nothing will change that… Putin understands that this is not just a war with Ukraine. It is a war with NATO.”
This opinion became more credible a few weeks ago when Ukraine tried to shoot down the helicopter carrying Russian President Putin. Russia retaliated by launching its biggest-ever drone and missile strike. The Associated Press reported that between May 23–25, Russia launched 900 drones over Ukraine. Ukraine responded with a raid that damaged or destroyed 41 strategic Russian bombers. Both sides have launched other devastating attacks since then.
The most recent round of peace talks ended in complete failure and, in its wake, has left an environment even more dangerous than before they began. This became all too clear when German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that “All of the Western nations that are providing weapons to Ukraine have given permission to use them to launch strikes deep inside Russia.” This is a major change in policy that significantly increases tensions in the conflict.
Let’s Make a Deal
When Trump was elected, he was confident he could arrange a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine immediately. Unfortunately, he was mistaken. About two weeks ago, Trump posted the following on his Truth Social account: “Something has happened to Putin. He has gone absolutely CRAZY! He is needlessly killing a lot of people, and I’m not just talking about soldiers… I’ve always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine.”
These are not the politically correct remarks one would expect from a president trying to negotiate peace between two warring parties. Then Trump turned his attention to Ukraine’s President Zelensky. “He is doing his country no favors by talking the way he does,” he said. “Everything out of his mouth causes problems. I don’t like it, and it better stop.”
The Kremlin’s response was hardly more diplomatic, dismissing Trump’s criticism of Putin as “emotional overload” at this “very important moment.” And Russia’s second in command, Dmitry Medvedev, did little to calm the situation when he displayed a map outlining Putin’s buffer zone that included almost all of Ukraine.
The Bottom Line
Where does all of this leave the prospects for peace in Ukraine and beyond? Not in a very good position at all. As one website put it, “If Ukraine really wanted to give those talks a chance to succeed, they wouldn’t have launched such an attack.” The point is well taken, and here’s one theory about why they did.
Russia keeps gobbling up more land that until very recently was in Ukrainian hands. Certainly, they want to achieve a clear and overwhelming victory, but that’s not their only objective. They also want to recapture all the territory that was under the control of the former USSR.
European nations are watching developments in the war very carefully and becoming increasingly alarmed as they ponder what Russia might do, fearing they may be next. And, if press reports are correct, they have good reason to worry because Russia is said to be gathering an army of tens of thousands of troops as they prepare for a massive summer offensive.
There’s never a good time for war, but that’s where recent events appear to be heading. Press reports say that many European countries are planning to reinstitute a draft.
According to this theory, the Ukrainians understand that the only way they can win this war is by getting NATO involved. And the primary goal of their attack on Russian strategic aircraft was meant to provoke a Russian response so large that NATO would be forced to join the war. Armstrong expects Russia to defeat Ukraine sometime in 2027, and those European nations that join the conflict a year or two later.
The tension level in the world has not been this high since WWII, and that’s saying quite a lot. Whether Armstrong’s scenario is correct will become clear soon enough. Meanwhile, given all the uncertainties, dangers, and volatility of this situation, preparing for all possibilities is a wise move. Under these circumstances, no one, aside from Armstrong, is venturing a guess as to what happens next.
Sources: AI Overview; ap.com; nypost.com; usawatchdog.com; wikipedia.org; wsj.com; zerohedge.com
Gerald Harris is a financial and feature writer. Gerald can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
