The current war involving Israel and the United States against Iran is the latest in a series of battles involving the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its proxies. Each time Israel went to war, the desired outcome was to “finish the job” and provide the home front with extended periods of peace. Is this an achievable outcome, and what exactly does it mean?
The Islamic Republic of Iran is the major impediment to a peaceful Middle East. Since its establishment in 1979, the Mullah-led regime has imprisoned its citizens both literally and figuratively and made available billions of dollars to spread its ideologies throughout the Gulf States region. Its proxies have launched tens of thousands of missiles against Israel and have disrupted oil shipments through the Red Sea.
Years of threats to wipe out the “cancerous Zionist entity,” parallel rhetoric aimed at America, and violent aggression by its proxies led to the current war against Iran. The aim of the war is to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten its neighbors and international oil traffic, to prevent it from spreading its terrorist ideology through proxies such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, and—most importantly—to destroy its ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs. After nearly three weeks of constant U.S. and Israeli air attacks, estimates suggest that more than 70% of the missile launchers have been destroyed, its production plants severely damaged, and its uranium enrichment plants extensively bombed. Is the job nearly finished?
Sources differ widely in this assessment. The IDF and Prime Minister Netanyahu suggest that many targets remain in Iran and that Israel needs to continue its targeted bombing to prevent another war soon. President Trump has been quoted frequently as saying there are almost no more targets that need to be hit. The reality is that Iran still has the firepower to send millions of Israelis into shelters. It continues to fire dozens of missiles and drones at its Arab neighbors.
Although the defanging of Iran will be very difficult, a ground offensive into Iran would be a major mistake. Iran is a vast country with approximately 90 million inhabitants. The Iranian Army has more than 500,000 troops, and the IRGC has a force estimated at 150,000 to 200,000 strong. A ground battle would likely be very long and costly, and politically unacceptable in both Israel and the U.S.
In a previous campaign, the United States confronted Iraq under Saddam Hussein. In the 1991 Gulf War, a broad coalition of countries faced Iraq over its invasion of Kuwait. After a quick combat phase of about one month, Kuwait was liberated and the war ended. Although air surveillance continued and no-fly zones were enforced, the coalition forces left Iraq and ground battles almost ceased. The goal of the conflict had been achieved.
In contrast, in 2003, the stated goal was to overthrow the regime and rid it of weapons of mass destruction. After capturing Saddam Hussein and eliminating his government, American military personnel remained in Iraq until 2011. American losses and casualties were in the thousands. Subsequently, a weakened, anarchic Iraq was targeted by ISIS. To this day, Iraq remains an unstable country and is the home to many militias loyal to Iran. The U.S. did not know when to stop.
Israel and the U.S. should learn from these experiences. To achieve our aims in Iran, we must employ economic pressure on the despotic regime in Tehran. Continued use of air domination should be employed to suffocate any attempt to rebuild military infrastructure. Our superior military and surveillance capabilities, along with a united Western front, will eventually force Iran to accept our conditions to end its belligerence. This is the way to finish the job in Iran.
In 2006, Hezbollah provoked a 34-day war and fired 4,000 rockets into Israel. Israel and Hezbollah engaged in a grueling ground war in which Hezbollah was badly defeated and Israel took significant losses. Lebanon and Israel agreed to United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, wherein Israel was to withdraw its troops and Hezbollah would disarm. Israel withdrew; Hezbollah did not disarm.
By 2023, Hezbollah, aided by Iran, had increased its missile, mortar, and rocket arsenal to 150,000 or more. Many of these could hit deep into Israel. Hassan Nasrallah continually threatened to destroy Israel with his stockpile. On October 8, 2023, following the Hamas massacre of Israelis in the Gaza envelope, Hezbollah began cross-border rocket fire that resulted in the displacement of nearly 100,000 Israelis from their homes in northern Israel.
In response, Israel attacked Hezbollah commanders using exploding beepers and, soon after, eliminated Nasrallah and many of his senior advisors. A major ground offensive by the Israel Defense Forces inflicted tremendous losses on Hezbollah, and a ceasefire was negotiated between Lebanon and Israel. However, Naim Qassem, the new secretary general of Hezbollah, refuses to disarm. The job in Lebanon has not been completed.
In contrast to Iran, which is 1,000 miles removed from Israel, Hezbollah sits on our northern border and must be completely defeated. Thousands of Israelis near the Lebanese border spend their days and nights in shelters. Some are faced with evacuation for a second time. Israel needs the resolve to continue its offensive until the people of Lebanon realize that their future depends on living in peace with its Jewish neighbor. No more ceasefires. No more ambiguous endings. The Lebanese Army must take over all Hezbollah strongholds, destroy their missile stockpiles, disarm Hezbollah, and make peace with Israel. Nothing less should be acceptable from Israel’s perspective.
Dr. Naider is a former Provost and Senior Vice President for Academic Affairs at the College of Staten Island and Distinguished Emeritus Professor of Biochemistry and Chemistry at the City University of New York. He lives in Rehovot. The opinions in this article are his own.