As of this writing, the vote count in the special election for New Jersey’s 11th Congressional seat – vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill – shows socialist Analilia Mejia leading former Rep. Tom Malinowski for the suburban district. The tight race follows a $2.3 million campaign by a super PAC allied with AIPAC, which ran ads criticizing Malinowski’s past votes in support of ICE while privately portraying his views on Israel as insufficient.

“I’m in the mainstream of both the Democratic Party and of the Jewish community in strongly supporting Israel and its right to defend itself while being critical of some of the policies of the Netanyahu government,” Malinowski said during his campaign.

“If AIPAC’s definition of pro-Israel excludes someone like me, there will not be enough pro-Israel people left in America to support an alliance for Israel,” he told the news site JNS last month. His approach – supporting Israel while remaining critical of its leadership and military campaign – mirrors that of former President Joe Biden and most of his Democratic colleagues on Capitol Hill. In contrast, Mejia has referred to Israel as an “apartheid” state engaging in “genocide.”

In some ways, this election resembled last year’s mayoral primary in New York: a crowded field that included a Democratic Socialist, a former officeholder with name recognition, other elected incumbents, and a split in endorsements. Malinowski had the backing of Sen. Andy Kim, while former Gov. Phil Murphy endorsed Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill; others supported former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way and Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett.

Unlike New York, New Jersey voters do not have ranked-choice voting, and there was no runoff between the top two candidates. Unlike Andrew Cuomo and Eric Adams, Malinowski had no scandals on his record and appeared to be the frontrunner for much of the race. The AIPAC-allied United Democracy Project (UDP) sought to weaken Malinowski in favor of the socialist, apparently hoping a Republican would prevail in the general election. Similarly, last summer, Eric Adams reportedly smiled when Cuomo lost the primary to Zohran Mamdani, hoping to capture moderate and conservative votes in the general. The result was the biggest political upset in the city’s history.

The district, covering Essex, Morris, and Passaic counties, is heavily Democratic and unlikely to elect a Republican in the general election. Public anger at President Trump’s immigration crackdown energized Democratic voters nationwide. In northern Texas, Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss in a special runoff for an open state senate seat that had been held by Republicans for decades – one in which Trump won by 17 percentage points in 2024. At the same time, even as Trump remains unpopular, when a Democratic candidate veers too far left, voters may exercise caution rather than flipping a seat.

Last October, Republican Matt Van Epps won his mid-Tennessee congressional seat by only 9 points in a district Trump carried by 22 points in 2024. Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn had endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. In that race, the choice for pro-Israel voters was clear. But in a crowded primary for a heavily Democratic district, PACs and advocacy groups should exercise caution before pouring money into the race. Failing to anticipate how the election of a socialist in a suburban seat could give that movement momentum beyond its urban base, UDP spokesman Patrick Dorton called Mejia’s win “an anticipated possibility” rather than a preventable outcome.

“This is the beginning of a long primary season,” he told The New York Times. “We’re going to be very active in supporting pro-Israel candidates and opposing detractors of the US-Israel relationship.” It remains unclear whether UDP participation in campaigns is ultimately helpful, given last week’s outcome.

This is not to suggest that the AIPAC brand has become as toxic as some portrayals on social media imply. In 2024, its supporters successfully unseated Reps. Cori Bush in Missouri and Jamaal Bowman in Westchester County in closely watched Democratic primaries where millions were spent on both sides. With urban Israel supporters such as Reps. Ritchie Torres, Dan Goldman, and Grace Meng each facing anti-Israel primary challengers, these are the races where UDP can make a meaningful difference.

It must present compelling reasons on behalf of the incumbents, focusing on their records of delivering for their districts. With AIPAC Tracker publicizing hard numbers on pro-Israel donations in a shaming campaign, support should be provided independently of these candidates but in coordination with their messaging and the Jewish communities in those districts.

“I ran the super PAC in support of Tom Malinowski’s campaign,” Julie Roginsky tweeted. “I am also a pro-Israel Jew. What AIPAC did in this race is bad for Jews, bad for Israel, and bad for having bipartisan congressional support for the very issues AIPAC claims to care about.”

AIPAC must recognize that, when given the choice between a critical supporter and an opponent who seeks the destruction of Israel, it should never repeat its mistake with Malinowski.

Finally, history shows that midterm elections often result in the president’s party losing seats. Should Democrats regain the House majority, having pro-Israel members in the chamber will be vital to maintaining support – particularly with incumbents chairing key committees. That is why I am appalled that Five Towns Jewish Times publisher Larry Gordon would prefer to see Reps. Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen unseated this year. Likewise, many of my neighbors in New York’s Fourth District give press to local Republican lawmakers and invite them to Jewish organizational dinners while failing to credit our Congresswoman for her solid pro-Israel record and the larger demographics of the district.

Haitians in Elmont will not vote Republican after Trump disparaged their birthplace. Central Americans in Hempstead are protesting ICE arrests in their community. African Americans in Lakeview will not forget Trump’s recently deleted tweet depicting Barack and Michelle Obama as primates. They will vote Democratic regardless of whether the party nominates a moderate or a socialist. Our communities are fortunate to have Grace Meng, Laura Gillen, and Tom Suozzi as our representatives. We should remind well-meaning pro-Israel PACs and activists that American support for Israel is most effective and long-lasting when it is bipartisan.

By Sergey Kadinsky