Perception is reality. This is a general rule in politics. It doesn’t matter that the economy was improving under President Biden, and continues to do so under President Trump. The perception is that things have been unaffordable since COVID hit, and politically, whomever is in charge will take the hit.
But it doesn’t stop at the economy. The concept of “perception is reality” touches everything, and that includes the perception of Operation Epic Fury. Just in case you have recently emerged from seclusion, and the first piece of media you were able to acquire is this issue of the Queens Jewish Link, Israel and the U.S. have launched a joint military operation in Iran that took out not only the Ayatollah, but three levels deep of military and political command in the country.
And here is where perception drives reality. There is a major perception of this military action that Israel is driving this attack. President Trump has been convinced by the Israelis to attack Iran and effect regime change. I have no doubt that this is not true. There is no way that America could be dog-walked by a militarily inferior nation into doing something we didn’t want to do, especially by a president who resisted starting new wars, and even bragged after his first term about the fact that he was the only president in my lifetime to not start a new war. That’s gone now. Regardless of this, the perception is that Prime Minister Netanyahu convinced President Trump to start an unnecessary war.
And you know what? President Trump has not done anything to dispel this perception. According to reports, this attack has been planned for months. During that time, the president could have gone to the American people and explained to them why this military action was warranted. Even the Bush administration did that when it came to Iraq. He could have gone to Congress, and explained why this action was necessary, so Congress could have voted to go to war. He had months to do this. It’s not like this was a surprise attack; Trump announced that he was sending an armada to Iran weeks ago. The whole world saw this coming. He attacked in broad daylight. The element of surprise was not a factor.
But he didn’t do any of this. He took action on his own to unilaterally decide that this was going to happen. Why? Perhaps because he didn’t think he would have the votes to declare war. After all, everyone in both chambers of Congress remembers what happened in Iraq. I doubt there would be enough members of Congress to agree to go on record and approve a declaration of war. So he chose not to go to war, not to engage Congress, not to beseech the American people. He chose to go on his own. He created this perception.
Now do not confuse this as me siding with the Iranians. I would happily dance on the graves of the upper leadership of Iran. This is about President Trump making a decision that created a perception problem. In addition to the perception that America has gone to war on behalf of Israel, here are a few more ways the American people have read the situation:
This is Iraq 2.0. Despite Secretary of War Pete Hegseth insisting that this isn’t like Iraq, it does sound awfully similar. Just for comparison, in 2003, then-Vice President Dick Cheney posited that the mission in Iraq would last “weeks, not months.” There is a large contingent of people who do not believe that this action will be painless.
Donald Trump did not receive the Nobel Peace Prize, and he realizes that despite ending all the wars he did until now, he never will. So now he believes his legacy will not be a peacemaker no matter how much he does. So now, he will try to bring stability to the Middle East by force and abandon his negotiator-in-chief moniker. This despite his repeated attacks against President Obama between 2011-2013, calling him “weak” and “ineffective,” and saying that because he wasn’t able to negotiate with Iran, he would bring us to war.
America has a history of trying to effectuate regime change, and it has almost never worked out in our favor: Cuba, Afghanistan, Iraq, Korea. Generally, we are left with a worse option than we had when we started. And while it’s hard to imagine a worse option than the Ayatollah and the Mullahs, we said the same thing about Saddam Hussein, and we ended up with ISIS. So if regime change is what we are going for in Iran, what makes you think that the alternatives are going to be any better? There isn’t even a political figure around which Iranians are rallying. And before you talk about the Shah, he’s not really attracting a crowd large enough to make any rule last. An internal revolution requires a central figure. That’s how the first Ayatollah was able to take power. That doesn’t exist now, and there is no indication that one is coming.
On the flip side, there are indications that this can improve Trump’s legacy and our overall situation. Before the US attacked Iran, CNN had a poll that showed that 59 percent of Americans disapproved of attacking Iran. After the attack, YouGov came out with a poll that showed a 48 percent disapproval rating. While the approval is still underwater, it went up significantly after we learned that the Ayatollah and a significant portion of his upper command were wiped out in the first two hours of the war. The uptick in approval ratings can be attributed to the swiftness with which we were able to eliminate this many people this quickly. I could only presume that the number would be even higher had we not also suffered casualties in the process. At the time of writing, that number is at four, but we can unfortunately expect that number to rise.
Americans have shown that they like two things in war: winning fast, and limited damage on our end. The faster and safer we do this, the more likely that the approval for this action rises, but it’s currently Purim, and if we are still in the middle of a war by Tish’ah B’Av, you can bet that the American people will not be happy about this, especially as the number of American casualties begins to rise. If that happens, the perception will not only be reality, but it will result in action, and we can expect a massive blue wave in November.
Izzo Zwiren is the former host of the Jewish Living Podcast. Follow him and his brothers on their health journey on their YouTube Channel, Brotherly Lovehandles. Izzo lives on Long Island with his wife and three adorable, hilarious children.