One would have expected that if the price of gas and a barrel of oil had increased more than 40% and the Strait of Hormuz were closed to shipping, the stock market would dive. Yet the market is at an all-time high. This is due to Trump masterfully playing the market. Trump has repeatedly made claims that the war will be over and that Iran has agreed to various proposals, none of which have yet come to fruition. Yet every time Trump does it, the market goes up. Last Friday was a perfect example. He declared that Iran had agreed to U.S. demands to get rid of nuclear material and not to build a nuclear bomb, as well as to have peace talks. Also, Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz without any conditions and to do so while the U.S. would keep the blockade. None of that has happened.
I doubt that the market will retreat to the level it was before Trump’s Friday announcement. That has been the pattern. Trump makes declarations that are false, and the market goes up. When the statements are denied by Iran and otherwise found to be inaccurate, the market may go down but by a smaller amount. In contrast, when Trump makes threats, it has an insignificant impact on the market. That may be due to the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade. If you are in the market, it is the best of times. If you are not, and yet you must pay high gas prices, it is the worst of times.
Now to my main topic. Viktor Orban was in power as Prime Minister of Hungary for sixteen years. He was the poster child for using the state apparatus in a democracy to remain in power. He referred to his government as an illiberal democracy. The term “illiberal democracy” has been given various definitions. One of the definitions is a society which has the trappings of a democracy, but the essence of what is a democracy is lost through the leader’s authoritarian and anti-democratic methods to consolidate power.
Orban had the support of President Trump, President Putin, and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Vice President Vance went to Hungary to campaign for him. Vance’s appearance did not help Orban and probably hurt him. People do not like foreign countries meddling in their elections by telling them for whom to vote.
On paper, Orban looked invincible. However, his party was smoked in a landslide that brought Magyar into power. The result was so one-sided that the new Prime Minister’s party received more than two-thirds of the seats.
Some on the left may look at this as a repudiation of Orban’s right-wing policies. That is inaccurate. If Orban’s main challenger had been a left-wing party, the result probably would have been different.
Magyar had been a member of Orban’s party before breaking with him a few years ago. Thus, this was not a change from right-wing to left-wing. Magyar had many of the same positions as Orban. The problem for Orban is that the people saw rampant corruption and economic malaise. Other European countries’ economies were doing better, and there was a higher standard of living. One of the big differences between Orban and Magyar is that Orban is pro-Russia and anti-Europe. Magyar wants Hungary to collaborate with the other members of the European Union instead of being a thorn in their side. Money will go to Ukraine that Orban had held up for years.
Hungary has been an ardent supporter of Israel. As I saw firsthand, it is a safe place for Jews to visit and live, which is not true in many other countries in Western Europe. The new government said that it does not plan to change, which is positive.
The results in Hungary prove that when there is an alternative that is ideologically comparable to the party in control and the choice between the two parties is mainly over competence and corruption, being the leader of a semi-authoritarian state does not guarantee remaining in power. Members of the Trump administration, including the VP, should get the message that the incompetence of the Trump administration and the corruption of the administration, which includes their families, could be disastrous in future elections. There may not be a repudiation of MAGA, as many wish, but there may be a repudiation of those in the administration. All that is necessary are viable MAGA candidates without the baggage who could be successful in a Republican primary. If that happens, Vance will have plenty of time to teach the Pope about Catholic theology.