For decades, many people have worried that the world is becoming overpopulated. They were concerned about shortages of food and water, not enough affordable housing, too little living space, and environmental issues. These days people are still worried about population—but for a very different reason. Populations in numerous countries are shrinking rapidly and, if this trend continues, everyone will be affected.
In order for the population to be stable, couples need to have approximately 2.1 children—two to replace the parents and slightly more to account for war, pestilence, illness, and the like. That’s not happening now. Birth rates around the world are declining at a shocking rate, particularly in developed countries.
What’s so bad about the population declining? After all, with less demand, homes would become more affordable. A smaller population reduces the danger of food and water shortages. And the prices of autos, clothing, and many other items could decline as a result of less demand. Unfortunately, a falling population is bad for both people and economies.
According to AI Overview, if birth rates remain very low, we can anticipate a reduction in basic services and a decay of infrastructure. And if this trend continues for a prolonged period, these problems would build on themselves and create others. In other words, with less demand for basic services such as hotels, restaurants, and shops, employment opportunities in these sectors would decline—and these difficulties would impact other industries as well.
Fallout for Seniors
The ramifications would go well beyond these. Michael Munger, an economist and former chair of the Political Science Department at Duke University, shared this possible scenario: “Within 25 years, most of the world’s developed nations will be facing sharp population declines, with shrinking pools of young people working to support an ever-aging population.” And “support” refers to two things: financial support of people whose ability to work has become limited and the physical care they may need.
Having children used to be considered a blessing. Now, it’s often considered a burden to be avoided if at all possible. How did the thinking of so many people change so drastically? The answer is surprising and explains why the world is facing this unprecedented dilemma.
Starting in the late 1960s, societies were desperate to find a solution to overpopulation—a problem that did not even exist. Nevertheless, they were willing to take unprecedented measures to resolve the world’s perceived overpopulation.
Numerous intellectuals and thinkers sounded off on this issue. One wrote a bestselling book in 1968 that predicted an alarming crisis the world was about to experience. The following is a passage from that book:
“The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s the world will undergo famines—hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world’s death rate ...
“We may be able to keep famine from sweeping across India for a few more years. But India can’t possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980. Nothing can prevent the death of tens of millions of people in India in the 1970s.
“And England? If I were a gambler I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.”
This fear was reinforced in numerous other books, lectures, TV shows, and movies. But the effort to limit—or even stop—the growth in population went far beyond ideas and theories.
Children Not Allowed
Probably the most famous government policy to limit population growth was China’s One-Child Policy—and it did help to achieve that objective. But, according to AI Overview, it also resulted in forced abortions and sterilizations. The preference for male babies led to a significant gender imbalance in the babies who were born.
Moreover, “The policy also contributed to an aging population and a shrinking labor force, posing long-term economic challenges.” The One-Child Policy lasted from 1979–2013, when couples were allowed to have two and subsequently more children. India took a different approach to hold down its population: it conducted mass-sterilization campaigns and adopted extreme pressure tactics.
According to Munger, some influential organizations in America had comparable goals. Among them were the Population Council and the International Planned Parenthood Federation, whose objectives were to control population growth. Some of these were implemented as early as 1952.
“Developing nations began promoting aggressive family-planning initiatives, often with substantial support (and sometimes with pressure) from Western governments and international agencies,” he said. Even well-known agencies and organizations like the UN, the World Bank, and USAID “integrated population control into foreign aid programs,” he said.
The following are the fertility rates in select countries, followed by the year the population is expected to peak:
Australia, 1.66, 2035
Canada, 1.40, 2045
France, 1.84, 2050
Hungary, 1.55, 2035
Italy, 1.25, 2030
Japan, 1.30, already peaked
Korea, 0.70, peaking
Mexico, 1.73, 2050
Poland, 1.39, 2032
UK, 1.53, 2040
US, 1.62, 2045
By the way, it’s predicted that Israel’s population will not peak during this century.
“Leader” of the Pack
With a fertility rate of just 1.3 per woman, the population of Greece is shrinking fast. And how’s that working out for them? Not so good. Many hundreds of schools are closing because of a shortage of students. With the birth rate the lowest in a century, deaths are exceeding births. The economy is straining to cope with problems caused by too few workers and the need for more elderly healthcare. Economists anticipate much higher taxes and soaring healthcare costs. Meanwhile, across Greece, ghost towns are springing up and employment opportunities are declining.
Many countries in Europe and Asia are facing these same problems—or will be very soon. Population collapse is very complex, and countries are grappling with it unsuccessfully.
But even if they do find a solution, it will take generations for countries to rebuild their populations. Some may never be able to rebuild them and may have to merge with other countries or risk disappearing completely.
There is one additional consideration they will have to grapple with, and that’s securing their borders. That is becoming a major challenge because it takes a lot of people to keep a country safe—and it’s becoming more difficult to gather all those people. What will happen to their air forces and battleships and missiles when shortfalls develop? These questions may be the most difficult to resolve.
Sources: AI Overview; Bloomberg.com; ZeroHedge.com; YouTube: “Greece Population Crisis
Gerald Harris is a financial and feature writer. Gerald can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.